AMERICA is out of patience with the NORTH KOREAN

the nuclear standoff with north korea seemslike it’s reaching a boiling point. president trump has drawn a red line thatthe north will not acquire a missile capable of striking the u.s. mainland. but the north is not listening. they’ve been increasing their missile testsas they try to develop a rocket that can hit an american city. let’s take a look at the options the u.s.has for dealing with north korea. north korea is the only country that has testeda nuclear weapon in the 21st century. in fact, it’s done it five times.

after kim jong un became supreme leader in2011, the north began ramping up the frequency of its missile tests. in response to the growing threat, presidentobama ordered the us military to use cyber and electronic strikes to sabotage the north’stest launches, just like it had done to iran’s rogue nuclear facilities a few years before. the move worked, according to a recent investigativereport by the new york times: “soon a large number of the north’s militaryrockets began to explode, veer off course, disintegrate in midair and plunge into thesea.” one medium range missile failed on 88 percentof its test launches, far higher than the

13 percent failure rate of the soviet-eraweapon on which it was based. these security breaches enraged kim, who orderedthe execution of five senior officials by a firing squad of anti-aircraft guns. but despite the setbacks, the north says it’salmost ready to test its first missile capable of reaching the united states. even if this is just big talk, one thing isclear: our military does not currently have the ability to stop the north’s nuclearweapons program. after it successfully launched a satellitein 2016, it now may be able to strike targets up to 4,000 miles away.

that not only puts south korea and japan wellin range, but also india, parts of northern australia, us bases in the pacific, and evenanchorage. but to hit the american mainland they’llneed to bust out the big boys. us intelligence estimates the north has sixkn-08’s and is developing an upgraded version called the kn-14. neither has been tested yet, but both couldtheoretically hit us here in the states. to defend against this type of intercontinentalballistic missile threat, we have a multi-layered, partially land-based missile defense systemprotecting the us mainland and our allies, but those systems have never been tested inlive combat, have had high failure rates when

tested so far, and would likely fail againsta barrage of more than a handful of missiles. president obama was so concerned by the situation,he warned president trump that this was the most urgent problem confronting the unitedstates. so what exactly are trump’s options? option #1 has just been taken: deploy thethaad missile defense system to south korea. the terminal high altitude area defense givesthe pacific alliance another layer of protection against ballistic missiles alongside theirexisting patriot systems and aegis equipped naval destroyers. by placing thaad so close to the north, theus, korea, and japan have instantly enhanced

their ability to track and respond to missilelaunches. but china is protesting the move, saying “it’scommon knowledge that the monitoring and early warning radius of thaad reaches far beyondthe korean peninsula and compromises china’s strategic security.” they argue thaad’s deployment could setoff an arms race in the region. but this seems hypocritical considering howmuch china — as the north’s lone ally and largest trading partner — has alreadyenabled its erratic behavior. not to mention china’s rapid militarizationof the south china sea. option # 2 is for trump to double down onobama’s effort to sabotage north korea’s

missile tests. but this strategy could have unintended consequencesif it emboldens russia and china to try and disrupt us launch systems. option #3 is to put more diplomatic pressureon the north through china. this interview from last year offers someinsight into how trump views this approach. [o’donnell] north korea’s nuclear threatis the top threat to the united states. what would you do to deal with that reclusivecountry? trump: i would get china to make that guydisappear in one form or another very quickly. and let me tell you—[o’donnell] how would you make him disappear?

assassinate him? [trump] well, i’ve heard of worse thingsfrankly. this guy’s a bad dude. but we have a lot of power over china, don’tunderestimate it. option #4 is bold, to put nuclear weaponsback in south korea in hopes that the doctrine of mutually assured destruction would serveas a check against the north. this would probably just provoke the north’sweapons pursuit, while suddenly ending the decades-old us policy favoring nuclear disarmamentwith significant consequences around the world. lastly, option #5 is the most risky and aggressive:preemptively striking the north.

president obama considered this option, butultimately concluded that accurately targeting the north’s constantly moving leadershipand weapons would be nearly impossible. the risks of a miss were way too high. any attack that didn’t immediately defeatthe regime would be guaranteed to start a war, with horrific consequences for millionsof people on the entire peninsula—especially for the south if china rushed to the north’sdefense. and even if the regime was defeated, you’dthen own the fates of the 25 million north koreans, many of whom would pour over theborders into china and the south. we’ll know sooner rather than later whichsteps the us government takes in this high

stakes showdown. but i want to know which options you thinkpresident trump should pursue? and which you think he will pursue? two very different questions. i loved interacting with your comments onour two-parter about the countries with the most and least wealth at top 1%. viktor agreed his country has problems; wehad suggestions to use the gini coefficient to rank countries on equality; and we starteda bunch of conversations about the evils of uneven wealth distribution.

until next time, for tdc, i’m bryce plank.

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